Ways to approach business forecasting

Please watch the video below and answer the following questions:

There are many ways to approach business forecasting. For example, there are both qualitative and quantitative methods. Some forecasts are based on highly sophisticated statistical methods; some are based on experience and examine past precedent, while others just follow a gut feeling.

The selection of a method depends on many factors such as the context of the forecast, the relevance and availability of historical data, the degree of desirable accuracy, and others.

After watching the TEDTalks video, should the executives have considered qualitative methods, quantitative method or both in the decisions. Please be specific.
What did you learn in this video that can apply to your professional life?

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Sample Answer

 

 

According to the TEDTalks video, both qualitative and quantitative methods should be considered in the decisions.

  • Qualitative methods are necessary to understand the reasons behind the data and to put the data into context. For example, in the case of Netflix, they used qualitative methods to understand what kind of shows their audience likes, what kind of producers they like, and what kind of actors they like. This information helped them to make the decision to license House of Cards, even though it was not in the data.
  • Quantitative methods are necessary to identify patterns and trends in the data. For example, in the case of Amazon, they used quantitative methods to identify which TV shows were most popular with their viewers. This information helped them to make the decision to hold a competition for TV ideas.

Full Answer Section

 

 

However, it is important to use both qualitative and quantitative methods together, and to use them in the right way. In the case of Amazon, they made the mistake of using only quantitative methods, and of using them to drive their decision-making all the way through. This led them to make the decision to make Alpha House, which was not a hit. In the case of Netflix, they used both qualitative and quantitative methods, and they used them in the right way. This led them to make the decision to license House of Cards, which was a hit.

So, to answer your question, both qualitative and quantitative methods should be considered in the decisions. However, it is important to use them together, and to use them in the right way.

Here are some specific examples from the video that illustrate this point:

  • Netflix: Netflix used data to understand their audience and what kind of shows they liked. Then, they used their judgment to decide to take a risk on the show “House of Cards,” which was not based on any data. This turned out to be a very successful decision.
  • Amazon: Amazon used data to select the show “Alpha House” to make. This was a safe decision because the data supported it, but it did not lead to the exceptional results that they were hoping for.

The speaker also mentioned that data analysis is not perfect and can sometimes lead to wrong decisions. For example, Google once used data analysis to predict outbreaks of influenza, but it failed one year.

In conclusion, the speaker believes that data is a valuable tool, but it should not be used to make decisions on its own. The best decisions are made by using data in conjunction with expertise and judgment.

Here are some things that I learned in this video that can apply to my professional life:

  • I learned that data is a powerful tool that can be used to make better decisions. However, it is important to use data in conjunction with expertise and judgment.
  • I learned that it is important to use both qualitative and quantitative methods when making decisions. Qualitative methods can help to understand the reasons behind the data, while quantitative methods can help to identify patterns and trends.
  • I learned that data analysis is not perfect and can sometimes lead to wrong decisions. It is important to be aware of the limitations of data analysis and to use it in a responsible way.

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