familiarize yourself with the seven key elements of a political risk study:
Background factors.
Key political individuals, groups, and institutions.
Regimes most likely to be in power.
Nature and magnitude of potential political turmoil.
Forecast the likelihood of changes in government restrictions on international business.
Likelihood that the government will significantly change import restrictions.
Economic policies.
After reviewing the seven key elements of a political risk study found above, choose a city/country that has hosted a major INTERNATIONAL sporting event such as the Summer Olympics, Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, or other major INTERNATIONAL sporting event. Examples might include: Tokyo hosting the Olympics in 2020, Qatar hosting the World Cup in 2022, Atlanta hosting the Summer Olympics in 1996, the 2026 World Cup partly being hosted in the U.S., or a mega sporting event closer to home. The city/country and year (past or future) is up to you. Then, discuss the event based on the seven elements above.
Full Answer Section
- Social and Cultural Landscape: The diverse populations of all three countries offer a vibrant cultural backdrop for the World Cup. However, potential challenges may arise due to cultural differences and immigration issues.
2. Key Political Individuals, Groups, and Institutions:
- US: President Biden and the current administration will play a key role in ensuring the smooth running of the event. Congress and local governments will also be involved in infrastructure projects and security measures.
- Canada: Prime Minister Trudeau and his government will be responsible for logistics and security in Canada. Provincial governments will also be involved in preparations.
- Mexico: President López Obrador and his government will need to address concerns about security and corruption in Mexico. Local governments will also play a crucial role in preparations.
3. Regimes Most Likely to be in Power:
- US: While the 2026 elections are still distant, the current political climate suggests a high probability of the Democratic or Republican party remaining in power.
- Canada: The Liberal Party under Prime Minister Trudeau is currently in power and likely to remain so until the next elections in 2025.
- Mexico: President López Obrador's term ends in 2024, and the outcome of the next elections will determine the political landscape for the World Cup.
4. Nature and Magnitude of Potential Political Turmoil:
- US: The polarized political climate in the US could lead to protests and disruptions during the World Cup. However, the democratic institutions and strong security apparatus are expected to mitigate any major risks.
- Canada: The risk of political turmoil in Canada is relatively low, although localized protests or social unrest could occur.
- Mexico: Security concerns related to drug cartels and corruption remain a challenge in Mexico. However, the government is expected to take significant measures to ensure safety during the event.
5. Forecast of Government Restrictions on International Business:
- US: The US government is generally open to international business, but visa restrictions and trade policies could pose challenges for some companies involved in the World Cup.
- Canada: The Canadian government is also welcoming of international business, and no major restrictions are expected.
- Mexico: Mexico's government has shown a commitment to attracting foreign investment, but corruption and bureaucratic hurdles could hinder some businesses.
6. Likelihood of Changes in Import Restrictions:
- US: While the US has implemented some protectionist trade policies in recent years, major changes in import restrictions are unlikely before the World Cup.
- Canada: Similar to the US, Canada is unlikely to implement significant changes in import restrictions before the event.
- Mexico: Mexico's government is actively working to attract foreign investment and is unlikely to impose new import restrictions.
7. Economic Policies:
- US: The US economy is expected to remain strong in the coming years, providing a favorable environment for the World Cup. However, fiscal and monetary policies could change depending on the political climate.
- Canada: Canada's economy is also expected to grow steadily, offering a stable environment for the event.
- Mexico: Mexico's economic growth is projected to continue, but challenges like inflation and inequality could pose risks.
Conclusion:
The 2026 FIFA World Cup presents both opportunities and challenges for the host nations. While the political landscape across the three countries offers some potential risks, the democratic institutions, strong economies, and shared commitment to the event suggest a high likelihood of success. By carefully managing potential risks and capitalizing on the economic and cultural opportunities, the 2026 World Cup can be a unifying force and a source of national pride for all three countries.
Sample Answer
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, presents a fascinating case study for analyzing political risk within the context of a major international sporting event. Let's delve into the seven key elements of a political risk study to assess the potential challenges and opportunities surrounding this event:
1. Background Factors:
- Political System: All three host nations are established democracies with stable political systems. However, the United States currently faces a polarized political climate, while Mexico grapples with issues of corruption and drug cartels. Canada, on the other hand, presents a relatively stable environment.
- Economic Conditions: The economies of all three countries are strong, with the US being the world's largest economy and Canada and Mexico experiencing steady growth. This provides a solid foundation for hosting the event.