Sonora County Sherriff Case 7.1 (pg. 195/6)
Sonora County is located in northern California and is known for its wine country and rugged Pacific coastline. Sonora is a rural county with only one major city, Santa Rita, which has a population of approximately 150,000. Sonora State University is located in Santa Rita and has a student population of approximately 12,000. The county sheriff keeps a monthly record of her department’s law enforcement activities by incident as shown in Figure 7.13 below for the prior year. She is troubled by an apparent recent increase in burglaries.
Prepare a run chart on each of the incident categories. Does she have reason to be concerned about burglaries? What variable might you plot against burglaries to create a scatter diagram to determine a possible explanation?
What is unusual about the pattern of reported disorderly and DUI incidents by month? What could be an explanation for this behavior? How could the sheriff address this pattern and reduce the number of incidents?
Would you recommend preparing control charts for assault and theft incidents? Why or why not?
Prepare a Pareto chart based on the total of last year’s incidents. Why might the sheriff not prioritize efforts on incident reduction according to the results of the Pareto chart?
Full Answer Section
Disorderly Conduct and DUI:
The unusual pattern of these incidents, likely peaking on weekends or holidays, suggests a connection to social gatherings and alcohol consumption.
Addressing Disorderly Conduct and DUI:
- Increased Patrols:Deploying more officers in high-risk areas during peak times.
- Community Outreach:Collaborate with bars and restaurants to promote responsible drinking and designated drivers.
- Public Awareness Campaigns:Educate the public on the dangers of DUIs and disorderly conduct.
Control Charts for Assault and Theft:
Yes, control charts for assault and theft can be beneficial. They can help identify unusual fluctuations that might require further investigation or resource allocation.
Pareto Chart:
A Pareto chart would visually represent the incident categories, ranked by their frequency. It might show that a small number of incident types (e.g., disorderly conduct) account for a large portion of incidents (80/20 rule).
Sheriff's Prioritization:
The sheriff might not prioritize solely based on the Pareto chart. While it highlights high-frequency incidents, it doesn't consider factors like severity or resource intensity.
Additional Considerations:
- Public safety concerns: Certain incidents, like assaults, might warrant higher priority despite a lower frequency.
- Resource allocation: The sheriff might need to consider the manpower and resources required to address each issue.
- Community concerns: Public input on priorities and areas of greatest concern can be valuable.
By combining data analysis with an understanding of community needs and resource constraints, the sheriff can develop a comprehensive strategy to reduce incidents and improve public safety.
Sample Answer
Analyzing Sonora County Sheriff's Incident Data
Run Charts:
The sheriff should create run charts for each incident category (burglary, assault, theft, disorderly conduct, DUI). These charts will show trends and potential outliers over time.
Concern About Burglaries:
Yes, the sheriff has reason to be concerned about burglaries if the run chart for burglaries shows a recent and sustained increase compared to the historical baseline.
Scatter Plot for Burglaries:
To explore possible explanations, the sheriff could plot burglaries against variables like:
- Unemployment rate: Economic hardship can be a factor in burglary rates.
- Vacation periods: Homes left vacant during holidays could be more vulnerable.
- Foreclosure rates: Increased foreclosures can create opportunities for theft of abandoned properties.