https://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilbert_the_surprising_science_of_happiness
a) Decision Tables and Uncertainty Analysis
- Describe your experiences with the decision tables so far. How did you feel about the results? Were there any surprises? Did you have to rethink your values after looking at the results?
- Perform sensitivity analyses and destruction testing with your decision tables, as described in the book, and tell us how this worked out for your options.
b) Durability Bias .
The article by Gilbert and colleagues (1998) addresses a special facet of uncertainty: not so much the question of what the future will look like, but the question whether future outcomes will really make us as happy or unhappy as we think they will (= uncertainty about values or weights, rather than outcomes). Please make sure that you have read the paper by Gilbert et al. (1998) and understood the concept of durability bias before you make any posts!
Address any of the following questions: - Did you ever experience durability bias in your own predictions about how you would feel after certain events in your life (such as passing or failing exams, winning or loosing a game, break-ups, grief, etc.)?
- Do you think the knowledge about this research could be relevant for your own decision in some way?
- Do you have any other thoughts about this article?
c) Gilbert's talk in the video .
This is a relatively open topic, you can discuss any of the issues that Gilbert addressed in his talk