Applied Intelligence Analysis

Applied Intelligence Analysis Order Description Assignment: Intelligence Sources and Scenarios Assessment Question: What, over the coming five years, are likely to be the three key threats to UK national security? Evaluate the likelihood of these threats being realised. Word Count: 1500 words Due Date: 22 April 2016 Revised Annex: Intelligence Sources and Scenarios Assessment Annex Template _V1_.xlsx Revised Guidelines: PP3601 ISSA Booklet _4_.pdf UK National Security: UK National Security.pdf Terrorism: Database (https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/) Do Excel then the actual analysis of 1500 words Lecture 1: Source Evaluation Lecture ¥ PowerPoint Lecture 1 (Source Evaluation).pdf Core Reading ¥ Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Randolph H. Pherson, Critical thinking for strategic intelligence, Sage/CQ Press, 2013 (Chapter 9) Essential Reading ¥ Davies, PHJ. 'Collection and Assessment on Iraq: A critical look at Britain's spy machinery' Studies in Intelligence. studies49_04.pdf, 49 (4). ¥ Sherman, Kent, “Words of Estimative Probability,” Center for The Study of Intelligence, 1964. (https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/6words.html) Recommended Reading ¥ Lord Butler_Review.pdf on Iraq WMD (Chapters 1 and 8) ¥ Joint Doctrine Publication JDP200.pdf 2-00 (JDP 2-00) (3rd Edition), August 2011 (Chapter 3 Section IV) ¥ Sundri Khalsa, Forecasting Terrorism Indicators and Proven Analytic Techniques.pdf Richard Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, PsychofIntelNew.pdf. (Chapter 8) Lecture 2: Intelligence Collection Plan Lecture: ¥ PowerPoint 3601 Collection Plan.pdf Core Readings: ¥ Coping with the Complexity of Intelligence Analysis: Cognitive Assistants for Evidence-Based Reasoning.CompIA.pdf Essential Readings: ¥ Army Open Source Field Manual, US Government, 2008 ARMY Open Source Field Manual.pdf ¥ Hank Prunckun, Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis: second Edition, 2015. Chapter 3 Recommended Readings: Hank Prunckun, Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis: second Edition, 2015. Chapter 8 Lecture 3: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Lecture: ¥ Slides 3601 ACH.pdf Core Readings: ¥ Richards J. Heuer, The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Washington DC (1999).PsychofIntelNew(1).pdf Essential Readings: ¥ Chapter 16 in Bruce J, George R, Georgetown U. Analyzing Intelligence : Origins, Obstacles, And Innovations Recommended Readings: ¥ Baron, Thinking and Deciding, Chapter 5BARON,+John+-+Thinking+and+deciding.pdf ¥ Fermat and Pascal on Probability pascal.pdf ¥ David T. Moore, Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis: Occasional Paper Number Fourteen, National Defense Intelligence College, Washington, DC, March 2007.2641.pdf ¥ Karl Popper The Logic of Scientific Discovery popper-logic-scientific-discovery.pdf ¥ F. J. Stech and C. El¨asser, .Midway revisited: Detection Deception by analysis of competing hypothesis,. MITRE Corporation, Tech. Rep., 2004 Midway.pdf ¥ Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Science, Vol 185.Science-1974-Tversky-1124-31.pdf ¥ Jack Zlotnick, Baye’s Theorem for Intelligence Analysis, Studies in Intelligence Bayes for Intelligence.pdf ¥ Diane E. Chido, Structured Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses: Theory And Application, Mercyhurst College Institute of Intelligence Studies Press. SACH - Chido_1_.pdf Abduction.