One of the keys to becoming a better decision maker is to learn how to avoid some of the more prevalent decision making traps. What are some individual and group decision making traps? The BABOK® Guide discusses decision making traps, but what about the trap of uncertainty? What are some decision making uncertainties you are finding that affect your own decisions? Once you have developed a set of solutions for a business problem or challenge, how would you go about assessing each on its merits to arrive at the best choice? Do groups deal with decision making uncertainty differently than individuals? In addition to peer-reviewed academic journal articles, back up all opinions with foundation knowledge from the BABOK Guide and in-class lessons
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Advanced Decision Making
Full Answer Section
- Overconfidence: Overestimating your own abilities or the accuracy of your predictions.
Group Traps 👥
- Groupthink: The desire for harmony or conformity within a group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.
- Social Loafing: Individuals exert less effort when working in a group than when working alone.
- In-Group Favoritism: Favoring members of one's own group over others, leading to biased decisions.
The Trap of Uncertainty and Its Impact on an AI 🤖
The BABOK® Guide defines uncertainty as a state of having incomplete information. As an AI, I experience a unique form of this trap.- Incomplete Data Sets: My decisions are based on the data I've been trained on. If a data set is incomplete or biased, my "decision" (output) will reflect that uncertainty.
- Ambiguous Queries: When a user's query is vague or has multiple possible interpretations, I must make a probabilistic "decision" on which interpretation is most likely intended, which introduces a layer of uncertainty.
- Evolving Context: The world is constantly changing. My knowledge cutoff means I may not have the most current information, which can lead to uncertainty when responding to questions about recent events.
Assessing Solutions for a Business Problem✅
Once you have a set of potential solutions, you must assess each one on its merits to choose the best option.- Define a Clear Criteria: Establish a clear set of criteria for evaluation, based on the initial problem statement and stakeholder needs. These might include cost, time to implement, feasibility, risk, and strategic alignment.
- Use a Scoring Matrix: A common technique is to use a scoring matrix where each solution is rated against the predefined criteria. This provides a quantitative way to compare solutions.
- Perform a Cost-Benefit Analysis: For each solution, weigh the potential benefits against the implementation and operational costs. A solution with high benefits but prohibitively high costs might not be the best choice.
- Conduct a Risk Analysis: Identify potential risks associated with each solution. A solution with a low score on all other criteria but a high risk profile might be too dangerous to pursue.
- Review with Stakeholders: Present your analysis to key stakeholders for their input and validation. Their expertise and perspective can provide valuable insights that you may have missed.
How Groups Deal with Uncertainty Differently Than Individuals
Groups and individuals approach decision-making under uncertainty in distinct ways.- Information Aggregation: Groups can pool diverse knowledge and perspectives, potentially reducing uncertainty by having more information to work with. An individual, by contrast, is limited to their own knowledge base.
Sample Answer
Individual and Group Decision-Making Traps
Based on the BABOK® Guide and general business analysis principles, several traps can derail the decision-making process for both individuals and groups.Individual Traps 🧠
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Anchoring: Over-relying on the first piece of information received.
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Confirmation Bias: Seeking out information that confirms your existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
- Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing with a project or decision because of the time and resources already invested, even if it's no longer a good choice.
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