Advanced Statistical Modeling in Finance

Question:
The traditional asset pricing model, known formally as the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
uses only one variable to explain the returns of a portfolio/stock, and this explanatory variable is
the returns of the market as a whole. And we define the coefficient, β, to describe the systematic
risks that the firm is facing. In particular, β is the coefficient of the following regression equation:
Rit–Rf t = α + β[Rmt − Rf t] + uit
where Rit is the return of the stocks of firm i at time t, Rmt is the return of the market portfolio,
and Rf t is the return of the risk-free rate. uit is the error term.
In contrast, the Fama–French model uses three variables. Fama and French started with the
observation that two classes of stocks have tended to do better than the market as a whole: (i)
small caps and (ii) stocks with a high book-to-market ratio (B/P, customarily called value stocks,
contrasted with growth stocks). They then added two factors to CAPM to reflect a portfolio’s
exposure to these two classes:
Rit–Rf t = α + β1[Rmt − Rf t] + β2SMBt + β3HMLt + uit
where Rit is the return of the portfolio i at time t, Rmt is the return of the market portfolio, and
Rf t is the return of the risk-free rate. SMB stands for “Small [market capitalization] Minus Big”
and HML for “High [book-to-market ratio] Minus Low”; they measure the historic excess returns
of small caps over big caps and of value stocks over growth stocks. uit is the error term.

  1. Pick two stocks that you are interested in and download their historical price data from
    Yahoo! Finance. Plot the historical prices against time. Compute their monthly returns.
    Make sure that your data ranges from January 2018 to December 2022.
  2. Assume that you invest 50% each of the stocks that you picked. Compute the monthly
    returns of the portfolio over the sample period above.
  3. Download the monthly data of the three factors from Ken French’s website
    (http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html).
    Read the instructions on the website carefully to guarantee that you are downloading the
    correct data.
  4. Draw the scatter plot the portfolio’s excess return (y-axis) against excess market return
    (x-axis) using Eviews.
  5. Estimate Fama-French three factor model of your portfolio, and explain the coefficients in
    words.
  6. Plot the residuals of the regression against time. And conduct the heteroskedasticity tests
    using Eviews.
  7. Perform the Chow test using Eviews. The breakpoint is March 2020.

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Sample Answer

 

 

Fama-French Three-Factor Model Analysis

This analysis aims to compare the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with the Fama-French Three-Factor Model (FF3) and assess the risk-return relationship for a sample portfolio.

1. Stock Selection and Return Calculation

  • Choose two stocks (e.g., Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN)) and download their historical daily closing prices from January 2018 to December 2022 from Yahoo Finance.
  • Calculate monthly returns for each stock using the formula: Monthly Return (%) = [(Current Month’s Price – Previous Month’s Price)/Previous Month’s Price] * 100
  • Combine the monthly returns of both stocks with equal weights (50% each) to find the portfolio’s monthly returns.

Full Answer Section

 

 

Downloading Fama-French Factors

  1. Excess Return vs. Excess Market Return Plot (EViews):
  • Open EViews and import your portfolio’s excess return data (monthly return – risk-free rate).
  • Import the downloaded excess market return data.
  • Create a scatter plot with the portfolio’s excess return on the y-axis and the excess market return on the x-axis.
  1. Fama-French Three-Factor Model Regression (EViews):
  • In EViews, use the “Equation” estimation technique.
  • Set the dependent variable as your portfolio’s excess return.
  • Set the independent variables as:
    • Excess market return (Mkt-RF)
    • Size factor (SMB)
    • Value factor (HML)
  • Run the regression and analyze the results.
  1. Interpretation of Coefficients:
  • Alpha (α): Represents the abnormal return of the portfolio compared to the expected return based on the FF3 model. A statistically significant positive alpha indicates potential outperformance of the CAPM.
  • Beta (β1): Measures the portfolio’s systematic risk (sensitivity to market movements).
  • Beta (β2): Represents the portfolio’s sensitivity to the size factor (excess return of small cap stocks compared to large cap stocks).
  • Beta (β3): Represents the portfolio’s sensitivity to the value factor (excess return of value stocks compared to growth stocks).
  1. Residual Analysis and Heteroskedasticity Test (EViews):
  • Plot the residuals of the regression against time to visually inspect for any patterns or trends.
  • Use the “ARCH” test or the “Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey” test in EViews to formally test for heteroskedasticity (unequal variance of errors).
  1. Chow Test for Structural Break (EViews):
  • Set the breakpoint date for the Chow test to March 2020 (potential structural change due to the COVID-19 pandemic).
  • Use the “Chow Test” in EViews to assess if the model’s coefficients are statistically different before and after the breakpoint.

Note: This is a general framework. Specific steps and commands within EViews might vary depending on the software version.

By following these steps, you can analyze your chosen portfolio using the Fama-French Three-Factor Model and compare it to the CAPM. Interpreting the coefficients, residuals, and test results will provide insights into the portfolio’s risk-return relationship, potential for outperformance, and the presence of any structural changes over time.

 

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